The current affairs of South Africa can hardly get more loaded with anticipation than this weekend. The bee in the bonnet is Jacob Zuma [1,2], until recently the Deputy President of the Republic of South Africa (SA) and likely candidate for the next presidency of SA. However, President Mbeki dismissed Mr Zuma from his post last year on allegations of fraud while Minister of Defence. Mr Zuma is also standing trial on rape charges of which the verdict is expected this coming week [3].
One could argue that lifting the bonnet would reveal a beehive rather than a bee: The ANC is in turmoil. The ruling party had always been heralded as the leading resistance movement against Apartheid in SA and turned itself into a political party shortly before the 1994 elections that changed the system in SA. Its success was clear in 1994 and its future, undoubted. Today, the ANC is still basking in the glory of the earlier resistance, expecting loyalty of traditional supporters and riding a rather tired horse towards the horizon. What lies ahead is less clear today than in 1994.
However, Mr Zuma represents a much older strive than the one between blacks and whites in SA. Mr Zuma is of the Zulu nation, a proud and historically successful black nation of Nguni ethnic origin. About the time of the first conflict between white Europeans and black Bantu tribes along the southeast coast of southern Africa, there was regional conflict between Zulu and Xhosa, another nation of Nguni origin. Historically, during the 19th century, the Zulu nation had the upper hand in battles with surrounding nations, including the Xhosa. All of that changed with the intervention of white people in southern Africa.
The white-black conflict of the 19th century, which ended in white domination and suppression of traditional, black political strategies, suspended much of the traditional Zulu-Xhosa conflicts [4,5]. Some argue that white rulers exploited these conflicts to their advantage. The British annexed Natal as a colony in the 19th century and imposed their rule . During the 1970's and 1980's, the government of SA contrived homelands for black people and created separate homelands for Xhosa people and Zulu people, which kept the peace for most of it and served mostly white political goals.
During the final years of Apartheid in SA, the conflicts re-emerged along modern, current political lines with regional violence amongst supporters of the ANC, dominated by Xhosa members and the IFP, a majority Zulu party, transformed from another former resistance movement. The ANC had been banned until shortly before 1994 and turned into a political party once legalised. The IFP, which in the 70's distanced itself from the ANC after an initial alliance, had been tolerated by the political system of Apartheid, as a black party allowed under the system of homelands contrived by the National Party of SA in the 1970's. Then came the build-up to the 1994 milestone and the spears were out.
Prior to 1994, the manoeuvring of black political and ethnic groupings in SA had been focussed upon overthrowing the old system in SA. Closing in on 1994, the stakes changed and were also raised: Who would ultimately govern the new South Africa, if indeed one would arise. One cannot fail to catch a whiff of a certain ethnic undercurrent in the ANC with a Xhosa, Nelson Mandela, as leader in a predominantly Xhosa top-structure. In his book, The Long Road to Freedom, Mr Mandela denied that the ANC was a Xhosa organisation. Yet, it strikes one as odd that he once had to face a question from a black man as to why he only spoke to Xhosa? Consequently, Mr Mandela saw it fit to make changes to the top structure of the ANC so as to incorporate a non-Xhosa person.
Onto this stage wafted Mr Zuma, a Zulu, with strong support from the black youth and the Zulu contingent of the ANC. The undercurrent came out in the rape trial of Mr Zuma, in which some supporters chanted pro-Zulu racist remarks outside the courthouse.
There has been constant rumour over tensions between Mr Mbeki and Mr Zuma, vehemently denied by the ANC leadership [6]. There has been even mention of a possible plot against Mr Zuma, a point raised in his defence by his lawyer in the rape trial. But on the other hand, Mr Zuma seems to have become his own demise. His statements during his rape trial smacked of a person with a outdated, sexist view, ill-informed on simple facts about HIV even though he was once leading the government HIV commission. More seriously, there is the upcoming fraud trial against Mr Zuma in three month's time. Yet, Mr Zuma has impressive curriculum vitae [7].
The courts will decide. Is Mr Zuma innocent or is he a mere criminal? Has Mr Zuma been framed or has he become a victim of his own devices. More importantly, will SA reach another milestone by displaying proper separation between government and the judiciary?
But letting that bee out of the bonnet will not remove the beehive. The ANC is under pressure from within [8]. It is accused of not delivering services to the poor in SA. It is said to be turning into a club for elitist black power wielders. It is facing an ethnic upsurge from Zulu members. When that beehive erupts, there will be a rather bigger buzz than the current zoom. For the sake of democracy in SA, it might be good to have a split in a party that has completely dominated the political scene since 1994 and now sits with 66% of the seats in the lower house of Parliament. But how we manage that split will be our next major milestone.
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